The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU for ending the Iran War)

How does this MOU resolve the reasons stated for going to war with Iran or requirements for ending the war? Let’s remind ourselves those reasons that were provided by President Trump and this administration.

1.  The United States of America will come to the rescue of the peaceful Iranian protestors, per a Trump Truth Social post, and facilitate regime change in Iran.
2. Trump vowed that Iran’s network of proxy groups (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) must be stopped.
3. Iran would have soon had a nuclear weapon (two weeks(?), per Trump) if the US hadn’t struck when it did.
4. We knew that there was going to be an Israeli attack, and if we didn’t attack Iran, we would suffer higher casualties (Marco Rubio). Subsequently, Trump said that the US forced Israel’s hand.
5. “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” per a Trump Truth Social post.

There were other varying statements about why we went to war with Iran, but these are effectively most of the arguments.

What does the MOU state and what has it achieved?

1. A 60-day cease fire to negotiate a more substantial deal, particularly as related to nuclear weapons, extendable with mutual consent.
2. The US will lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports and Iran will allow ships to pass in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will not charge a fee for this passage for 60 days and will conduct dialogue with Oman about assessing fees. There was fee-free passage prior to this war, and now Iran has introduced a negotiable lever to their benefit.
3. The US and Gulf partners will provide US$ 300 billion in reconstruction and economic development for Iran. Trump criticized the Obama administration for giving Iran US$ 1.7 billion as part of the 2015 nuclear deal. While Trump might say that the US isn’t contributing to this US$ 300 billion, it’s hard to imagine that we won’t. The US has already spent US$ 34.5 billion on this war.
4. The US will terminate all types of sanctions against Iran as part of the final deal (meaning the deal that hasn’t yet been negotiated), and to discuss these immediately during the subsequent 60-day negotiations. Well, yes. There’s lots to be negotiated yet.
5. Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. This commitment was first made by Iran in 1970, and they continue to state this commitment. This has not changed since the beginning of the current war.
6. With the signing of the MOU, The US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil and products. This is a windfall for Iran because these restrictions existed prior to this war.
7. Upon implementation of this MOU, Iranians will get access to US$ 24 billion or more of frozen assets. This is another boon for Iran. These assets had been frozen prior to the war.

These don’t sound like great deals for the US, and they put Iran in a much better economic situation than before the war. Even though we bombed the heck out of a lot of things (including killing people), this agreement sounds like a good deal for Iran and nothing for the US. This will give the Iranian government more economic resources to withstand any additional assaults that the US military might pursue if they don’t agree to a deal within 60 days (as Trump threatens). Ask yourself, why would Iran negotiate another deal if they’ve already demonstrated that they can withstand a US military assault, they will be in a better economic situation, and they can shut down the Strait of Hormuz at their discretion?

President Trump and this administration have not resolved anything with Iran.